“When you eliminate the impossible, that which remains - no matter how implausible - must be true”

“In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is king”

Since Saiful’s accusation, things have moved so hard and so fast that real, considered analysis of the bigger picture has been difficult.

Reflecting on the 24 hours of Anwar’s arrest allows us a good chance to take a step back and make some responsible and analytical suppositions.

Let us begin by highlighting some of the more salient features of Malaysia’s current political climate: a leadership vacuum.

Abdullah is universally - and the word “universally” is not used lightly - perceived as weak. Najib either refused to go for Abdullah’s jugular when he could have, or has been held back both now and then by threats of solid proof emerging to validate what are already widely believed implications of his involvement in a certain crime.

Let’s also be perfectly honest. Neither of these men command any serious popularity; I can barely think of any significant group of people who get excited about Abdullah/Najib as their “hero.”

That kind of accolade can only perhaps be given to Anwar Ibrahim, whose single largest failing appears to be not having a total of about 130 parliamentarians on his side at the moment - another considerable obstacle.

Other contenders for the throne are quite simply unrealistic and hardly worth mentioning.

The last few weeks appear to indicate a stalemate, based in large part on the limitations described above to be facing the three men. Abdullah can’t make himself appear strong and popular, Najib can’t shake his ghosts, and Anwar hasn’t yet pulled the rabbit out of his hat.

Invisible Players

The question we should now ask is: what does this mean for other, less visible players and stakeholders in this game?

In conducting this analysis, we must move beyond front page politicians and examine the other power brokers in the country.

For today’s purpose, let’s concentrate on some heads of law enforcement and perhaps take a glance at some former prime politicians.

For these gentlemen, two things are extremely bad for business: a power vacuum, and Anwar coming to power (let us not forget the subject matter of the ACA statement Anwar gave literally minutes before his arrest).

It is worth noting that of the two factors, in circumstances of the former, the latter becomes ever more likely.

As long as Abdullah and Najib continue to fight, Anwar’s chances of achieving the premiership become higher and higher. It appears that some were less than convinced by Abdullah’s and Najib’s 2010 deal - which plausibly was announced to buy time, placate the Umno masses and give the false impression of stability.

Some could very well view that the stalemate that exists is neither a peaceful nor stable one. In the absence of a domineering power ala Hobbes’ Leviathan, warring parties are always likely to continue fighting their war, bringing everyone down with them - the parameters of the game make it such that there is simply too much at stake to act otherwise.

Refusing to be taken down together

One problem that arises is that the “everyone” that stands to be brought down together with the sinking ship may have ideas of their own.

The conclusion that the police were merely flexing their muscles in Anwar’s arrest as a show of brute strength is overly simplistic. The signal was not to Anwar, but to the factions in the ruling party: “Don’t forget that we are players too, and don’t think that we will let you take us down with you.”

Abdullah may have even gotten wind of potential disloyalty where he disengaged the safety locks on the ACA and gave it its own prosecuting powers, independent of the police or AG’s chambers, introducing another player into the law enforcement game because he cannot effectively control the existing players.

This is not a Mahathiresque landscape, where literally everyone in government comes under the premier’s thumb. Abdullah’s weakness makes for a free for all, one which law enforcement actors appears to have taken advantage of on Wednesday.

Far-fetched? Let us not forget that Umno looked ridiculous the day Anwar was arrested. Pakatan and other social movements have successfully painted a picture of the police wherein they are mere blunt instruments constantly misused and manipulated by political power. This is no longer as true as it once was.

Law enforcement nonetheless capitalised very successfully on this perception; few now blame the police for what happened, they blame an Umno that was embarrassed after the debate from the night before; an Umno perceived to be desperate to defend itself against crossovers and Anwar coming in to Parliament at all costs.

As the arrest developed, the terms “own goal” and “public relations disaster” were bandied about liberally; people could barely believe that Umno would be this stupid.

Maybe it was just made to look stupid by forces incognito.

Indirect Attacks

Too much of a conspiracy theory? Perhaps.

One of the oddest aspects of Anwar’s arrest was its timing and manner. Both of these precipitated maximum elicitation of public anger.

Circumstances? Hours after the debate, minutes after an ACA report, an hour early without any plausible reason whatsoever, and with a squad of fifteen cars. Balaclava masks were used as well, but close inspection of the pictures suggests that the mask wearers were in fact overweight, sloppy, everyday cops who were given ski masks to wear along with their goofy vests and plain clothes at the last minute, rather than professional special-ops personnel (they also appeared fully prepared for their photo-ops, never straying far from Anwar).

Was this by design?

What if KeADILan had failed to maintain control over its angered membership, and riots had spilled over into the streets? Would we be looking at an Emergency situation?

Conveniently, law enforcement would find itself extremely empowered, and political leadership may have been forced to consolidate.

Let us also examine Raja Petra’s case. We notice that while we always suspect Najib of behind behind action against RPK, we should note that Najib himself has never been inclined to do anything whatsoever that may call attention to the Altantuya case (such as initiate criminal or legal proceedings, which would bring the matter to court).

More self-indulgently, let’s recall Nathaniel Tan’s arrest. Some may suspect that Johari Baharom was behind it, in an attempt to exact revenge for “lies” published about him on the internet. However, remember that he was (successfully) trying to stay out of the limelight and avoid further mention of his bribery accusations. Recall as well that at the time, Johari and Musa Hassan were engaged in a bitter war.

Same tactics by the same parties?

It is worth investigating on a procedural level exactly what led to the charge against RPK - was it a police report by Najib? Or a police report by some unknown police officer?

Note further that RPK’s trial - in which he can finally reveal to the world on record all his hidden proof and dirt on the Altantuya murder - is set for the exceptionally early date of August 15 (magistrates are appointed directly by the AG’s chambers), whereas his other sedition charge, months ago, is only set to be heard in early October. Presumably, if Anwar is ever charged with sodomy, his trial is likely to take years before it is heard.

Hit Anwar to embarrass Abdullah, hit RPK to embarrass Najib, and all in all, show them who’s boss.

Resisting

The civil servant class of power brokers almost don’t care who is in power; they just want a strong boss who can secure the current regime, and ensure that ‘business’ can be run as usual.

There’s simply too much at stake - and we are talking entire lives and careers forever besmirched and some serious prison time here - for business not to run as usual, or for any type of new order based on integrity, transparency and justice to take over.

Also in the same boat are certain former prime politicians still alive and kicking in the country, actively egging on a return to the old order.

These civil servants seem to have taken a leaf from Wong Chun Wai’s whiny “We’re sick and tired” book and decided to speed things up and facilitate the dominance of one Umno faction over the other.

Just as in 1988, twenty years ago, the movement for change was identified as an easy target to facilitate the achievement of unholy goals.

Unfortunately for these agitators, they are still oblivious to what was written on the wall last March 8th. The good news is that the the voices of those seeking a better Malaysia for all, have matured and wisened up to these manipulations as well as learnt the value of holding fast to Gandhian principles in their struggle.

The movement has also reached out and expanded beyond its original circles to all right-thinking Malaysians, who will no longer stand and watch all that is decent and honourable stolen from beneath their noses.

I think schemers and plotters will find a stronger, more united Malaysia willing to resist peacefully to the very end.

DATO’ SALEHUDDIN HASHIM and NATHANIEL TAN

Dato’ Salehuddin Hashim is the Secretary-General of Parti Keadilan Rakyat; Nathaniel Tan is facing constant distraction in his efforts to start a new career in finance.

There’s much to digest from the whole experience, much to analyse and ponder, but for now, I would just like to congratulate everyone who kept calm, and who expressed their support in a myriad of ways.

Let us show the same support to RPK!

6pm: I think I’ve finally cobbled some thoughts on the bigger picture together, but may take a while before publishing.. :) 

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It was really nice, getting out of jail. I have no doubt whatsoever that it was due to the efforts of so many of you, so many rakan perjuangan, friends and family.

Some will probably be sick of hearing it, but on this day, let me say again that no one did more or suffered more than Li Tsin, in those 4 days. Thank you.

“As a politician with a conscience, I share the people’s frustration of watching the widening gap between the rich and the poor, the permeation of racial disappointment in public policies, the rising corruption and the abuse of power.

“Despite the growing discontent of the people, Barisan Nasional has shown neither the determination nor the commitment to address these problems,” she said.

On MCA, Tan said the party’s struggle to defend the interests of the Chinese community often ends with having to ‘concede and compromise’.

It now sounds pretty confirmed that Anwar will be held overnight.

I’ve just been asked to be somewhere to assist with the party right now, so I’m heeding that call. If I don’t get to go down to the police station and repay a debt owed so deeply, I hope you will be able to go in my place, even if only for a few minutes.

The police and government have officially stated that the reason for Anwar’s arrest was that because Anwar apparently couldn’t have arrived home in Bukit Segambut at 1pm, had his lunch, and arrived at the police station in Jalan Hang Tuah by 2pm.

I’ve watched him eat, and driven with his driver; he could have made it there at 1.45pm.

An excuse this painfully lame can only point to there being greater conspiracies afoot - I am still trying to find the truth; there is much haze… Also: full support for RPK.

Update 4.20pm: Some highlights from recent MK article:

According to lawyer Sankara Nair, Anwar’s arrest had nothing to do with his non-appearance at the police headquarters on Monday.

“In fact, several minutes before the arrest, the investigation officer DSP Jude Pereira called us to ask if were coming. We replied that we would be there at 2pm sharp,” he said.

“If Anwar had not showed up at 2pm, I would understand the need to arrest. The police have breached the trust and confidence we once had.

“Now, my client has expressed fear that he will be subjected to intimidation by the police,” he added.

Sankara said the police must explain the purpose of arresting Anwar in such a manner.

He also stressed that under the law, Anwar does not need to provide the police with a DNA sample.

Deputy national police chief Ismail Omar confirmed Anwar had been arrested, saying he was a suspect in the sodomy case and would need to undergo a medical examination.

“He is not being charged with anything yet, don’t jump to conclusions,” Ismail told AFP.

“We have to record his statement to complete our investigations,” he said. “Once the facts are in we can make a decision.”

Update 3.45pm: Last time Wong Chun Wai said wantonly idiotic things, I gave face and didn’t mention names. Now cannot tahan. He wrote: “The PKR adviser was picked up outside his house in Bukit Segambut by the police at around 1pm. Anwarwas supposed to head towards the KL police headquarters from the ACA office in Putrajaya. But when he headed towards a different direction, the police is said to have stopped him.”

?! Said by whom? His pet puppy? His own paper stated that Anwar was arrested outside his house. This ‘when he changed direction thing’ bullshit might have made sense if Anwar was arrested outside the Turkish embassy or something ridiculous like that. As it is, we must make sure that if Wong Chun Wai ever has to go from one appointment to another in the course of a morning and afternoon, he must not be allowed to have his lunch.

Update 2.40pm: See Nurul Izzah’s blog :(

Update 2.30pm: Many websites are slowing to the point of inaccessibility. Mostly, this is overload, but we cannot rule out tampering. I was soon going to blog about the very bad internet connectivity over the last few weeks - on a scale big enough to be fishy.

I think people all around are working hard to restore connectivity.

Update 2pm: According to the same MK article, it looks like Anwar is to be charged with sodomy.

Update 1.30pm: On MK, so must be true. According to report, he was at home - which clearly indicates he was planning to have lunch at home before voluntarily making his (already announced) way to the Police Station to give his statement, scheduled for 2pm. So why arrest him at 1pm? (See some analysis below)

From The Star:

His wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail said Anwar called her from the police car and asked her to go home to look after the children.

I’ve got a few different reports saying so, fairly credible. But let’s treat it as a completely unverified rumour for now. Updates to come.

They really must have lost their minds.

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If the unconfirmed info that he was arrested while he was already making his own way to the police station is true, this smacks of bad intent. It means that they had planned to arrest him all along, for whatever obscene reason, absolutely irregardless of his intention to cooperate.

I smell a rat.

Another conspiracy theory is that they might try to provoke Anwar supporters into doing something stupid, or mount false flag operations, and create a big mess out of it all.

I think Malaysians would mature exponentially, and life would be more entertaining, if this was only the first of many. In the unlikely event such debates were continued, I think it would really be to the benefit of the whole country.

Well, you probably know roughly what I think of the debate itself (I love how Shabery Chik kept saying ‘percayalah’ and dodged the public transport question completely), the question is: what do YOU think? (you can also vote in MStar poll - the first of many I’m sure)

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On another note, there is a warrant out for Anwar’s arrest.

I suppose this doesn’t necessarily mean that they will arrest him, but the thought is disturbing nonetheless. We’ll stay tuned and continue to be vigilant.

It is a season of new chapters; some sad, some.. just new.

From Monday onwards, I’ll basically start working full time with my dad. My last real job with the Foundation for the Future ended March 31st; some of the time spent thereafter includes working on book I hope you’ll soon hear about and doing a little bit of work with KeADILan in the aftermath of the latest scandals.

Now though, I think it’s time to buckle down on to something else. My dad works in finance, basically, so I’m going to become a full time capitalist :P (in almost the purest sense of the word I guess). Luckily, I have this blog to help keep me plugged in to things I believe in, and will continue to believe in (just sorry if it’s not always as regular).

Guess there isn’t that much else to say on the matter; I’ve been missing a lot of things from the past, and will likely continue to do so….

To all readers: it’s always nice having you nearby - thanks as always for the companionship :)

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I was recently reminded that a year ago yesterday, I was picked up by the cops, starting a four day ordeal.

As I ‘commemorate’ this event, I want to remember, among the so many people who all really, really did so much to help me get out, the one person who may have done the most - Li Tsin.

I’ve thought about this at some length, and I don’t think there’s much more I can say right now that would do anything justice, except maybe thank you.

How many more have to die before we get greater accountability? :(

TANAH MERAH: A 24-year-old youth died at the Tanah Merah district police headquarters lock-up on Saturday after he was found unconscious.

District police chief DSP Abdul Aziz Mahmud said Kamarul Ariffin was arrested on July 8 and remanded for further investigation under Section 3(1) of the Drug Dependants (Treatment and Rehabilitation) Act because of his involvement in drugs.

DSP Abdul Aziz said Kamarul was confirmed to be positive on opiates, amphetamine and methamphetamine after a urine test was conducted on him on the day of his arrest.

He said around midnight two days ago, Kamarul was taken to Tanah Merah Hospital for a medical examination after he complained of pain and cramps and was then brought back to the police lockup.

“He fell unconscious at about 7.50am and was confirmed dead one hour later by the doctor,” he added. – Bernama

Pic of Aina at school (right).

Dear YB Syed Hamid Albar
Home Minister

Re: Aina Mardiah Shahrial, 17

You may not know Aina, she is the eldest daughter of Shahrial Sirin, an ISA detainee. On the afternoon of July 2, about 3 pm, she was admitted into Kajang Hospital. The girl was fighting for her life. The family immediately informed authorities at Kamunting, where her father had been detained for the last 7 years.

Somehow, Shahrial was only told of her daughter’s illness at 10.30 am the next day, July 3. Aina’s mother made a personal appeal to the authorities at Kamunting to let her daughter be with the dad for the last time. The doctors said Aina had only a few hours of life left, God-willing.

The authorities at Kamunting said they could not release Shahrial. They had to get your signature on the release papers. Yes, YB, your precious signature.

Aina’s father was finally released at 5pm. It was the longest four-hour journey to Kuala Lumpur.

Shahrial got to her daughter’s side at 9.45 pm. He was too late. Aina had passed away at 6.20pm without seeing her father.

Thank you, YB, and may Allah bless you and your family.

pic: A father’s belated good-bye

Norlaila Othman, a wife of an ISA detainee herself (read here), told me that the Abolish ISA Movement will be writing to Syed Hamid so that the Minister knows about the father and daughter. And that besides love, sometimes all we need is a bit of common sense.

Read the Harakah.net’s report here. And Tehsin’s Detention without trial: The Ultimate Obsenity

Update 4.45pm - See Rocky for a completely heartbreaking account of the family tragedy endured by an ISA detainee. I’m too crushed to say anymore for now.

Thanks Mr. Mugam, for the point.

Syed Hamid:

DETENTION under the Internal Security Act (ISA) is geared more towards rehabilitation rather than criminal punishment.

Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar told M. Manogaran (DAP – Teluk Intan) that ISA detainees would be rehabilitated in regard to their extremist beliefs and actions, which could threaten national security.

“Those held under the ISA will undergo a rehabilitation programme at their place of detention.

“If a detainee has been considered to be rehabilitated and no longer poses any danger to the country, he or she will be released,” he said in a written reply.

Really? Well, we have a lot of ex-ISA detainees out there we can use as test of rehabiliation effectiveness: Anwar (when he was younger than me), Kit Siang, Syed Husin, Tian, Guan Eng..

How’s that rate of success coming eh?

I wouldn’t quite consider Ezam a successful case of Kamunting rehabilitation either.

And you think Uthayakumar is going to come out and join MIC.

Don’t be stupid, be just; no more detention without trial.

So says an sms from her aide who is a former colleague of mine. Something to do with her ceramah tonight (Friday, 11/7), which I understand is still going on at the Multipurpose hall of MPBJ, Section 5, Petaling Jaya

I’m not quite sure what went down, but will just wait for clarification as it comes.