Does Ahmad Ismail represent a huge swath of Malaysian society, or is he a lone ranger?

Examining this question may yield important answers about the current state of Umno in Malaysia.

After Monday’s incident which included infantile supporters ripping up pictures of Koh Tsu Koon, we can expect some further shows of support for Ahmad by a few individuals and groups.

It is worth recalling the NEP protest in Penang and Selangor soon after March 8th, as well as the UiTM protests more recently. These gatherings, numbering usually in the low four figures or so, should have us questioning just how deep and wide the fears of Malay Malaysians currently run.

Concerns about uprisings were indeed widespread in early March, where many feared the period when Umno-led ultranationalists would have had the most reason and impetus to display extreme displeasure with the election results.

That cloud passed without a storm, a fact which left a distinct impression amongst Malaysians that we had come a long, long way in our fifty years of existence as a nation.

Legitimate Malay concerns

The passing of this storm should not be taken to mean however, that widely felt, legitimate concerns amidst the Malay middle ground do not exist.

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Tags: Ethnicity, Malaysian Politics, Umno by Nathaniel Tan
27 Comments »

So Li Tsin published some good interviews of Ezam, and the walk on Sunday seemed to have gone pretty well (congrats!).

I’m intrigued by the content of the articles.

Zaid is the poster boy for many of those who pin some hopes on BN. Clearly the line he took on Sunday was.. less than inspiring to say the least.

Surprisingly, he hasn’t been butchered in detail online yet for the nonsense he was spouting, but I think he certainly deserves to be. If I get more time and no one else does it, it may be worth it - just to have it on record.

In short, it looks like he has to spend some energy pandering to the Umno buddies with whom he’s thrown his lot.

Anyway. So Ezam wants to go in and see how many times he can repeat the word ‘reform’ in a single interview :)

Both these guys point towards the recurring question: can Umno be reformed from within?

Historically, varied dramatic decisions were made based on how one perceived this question. I too have written about how this doesn’t seem possible, given the long term structural damage and corruption the party has endured over a very extended period of time.

These two recent events give us an opportunity to compare and contrast.

Some are convinced by Zaid’s good intentions, and he’s certainly said some of the right things in the past.

The comments he made on Sunday are shocking however, and perfectly in keeping with any typical Umno/BN stooge or lackey. Some of his criticisms may have had some foundation, but it sounded like there was a major underlying unwillingness to take responsibility and stay committed to reform.

One can only wonder if Ezam will turn out the same way.

Again, I don’t know the guy, but something I’ve always thought about his situation: people like Ezam have but one profession. Just based on my own experience and other observations, I can tell that a life in this industry generally prepares you very little for a career in anything else.

This is a tough situation for any man to be in. One perceived to have such talents needs a platform (and badly, for to be without one is to be irrelevant), and there are only so many to choose from. It seems to me Ezam chose one and now just has to readjust everything and fit his every spin to his decision.

I can’t comment on the depths of his heart, but I think the fate of many others should give some cause to make certain informed guesses as to whether good intentions get anywhere in Umno.

I thought I would quote this section, because I think there is another significant line in it:

There is a smear campaign to discredit me and I have friends in PKR, they too know that my strength is in my morality and integrity. I have no money unlike many other leaders. I still stand by what I have said previously. When I met Abdullah, we did not discuss about retraction of any reports I had made (against him). He did not ask and I did not offer. I have done my job and the reports are now with the police and the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA).

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
6 Comments »

updated: Thanks for responses all; I wanted to note that I do not under any circumstances whatsoever, support the use of ISA against anyone, incl TDM. Those who object to the ISA usually do so on basis of principle, not on basis of who is victimised.

Malaysiakini:

Dr Mahathir Mohamad has warned of possible unrest in multi-racial Malaysia, accusing his successor, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, of failing to assert his authority.

“Now we are seeing the different races making demands on the government, which they perceive as a weak government,” the former premier told reporters in Tokyo yesterday.

He said “extremists” among different communities had begun to voice their opposition and make unfair demands on the government, trying to “divide rather than unite.”

Round two of Mahathir’s racial fear mongering. This is too much, and (using a moral definition, rather than the ones used under our Sedition Act), seditious - ie, it is inciting hatred.

I couldn’t care less if the old man wants to pull his ridiculous political stunts in Umno. But if he wants to stoke the flames of racial hatred along the way, he can damn well take his game somewhere else.

We already know that Mahathir doesn’t know when to quit. I take his recent abysmal failure to inspire any loyalty whatsoever in leaving Umno to mean that his political career is as dead as a doorknob.

If he doesn’t want to retire with whatever dignity is left, fine, but I feel it is our duty to speak out against and condemn in no uncertain terms any racial incitement - and make no mistake, that is EXACTLY what this is.

This is even more true when such incitement is all because a grumpy old man idiotically cannot stand another.

With statements like this, Mahathir proves once again that he not only cares nothing for the true welfare of the Malays, but that he is ever willing to gamble the entire nation’s harmony on a hateful personal vendetta.

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
38 Comments »

I’ve never really met Ezam. I thought about this for a while, and concluded that there is no need to analyse his recent apparent decision from his standpoint. That would be an undeserved waste of resources.

Combined with news about Mukhriz, Zaid, and everything else, it did however get me thinking.

As John said, it is probably more productive to talk about policy, than to talk about politics. Nevertheless, I will try to make the latter as productive as possible.

What possible future directions for Umno (and thus, automatically, for BN)?

The crisis that Umno is undergoing is a bit unique. Everyone talks about the ten year crisis cycle; there are some interesting differences.

In both the late 80’s and 90’s, the crisis had very clearly defined battle lines. It was Mahathir vs. KuLi/Anwar - very clear cut.

As I have commented before, this time there’s a big difference in that the anti-Abdullah opposition is extremely disjointed - a fact that may singlehandedly capsize any attempt to overthrow him within Umno.

It is amusing to see the various Umno factions fight wars on multiple fronts. As any strategist knows, this places one in an unenviable position. Mukhriz has to attack both Anwar and Abdullah, people like Najib and Muhyidin have to both support and undermine Abdullah at the same time, Ku Li now has common ground with Mahathir, but not enough to follow him on the same kind of walkout he engineered way back.

I think the first Ku Li war was about ideology - whether Umno was a feudal, civil servant’s party, or whether it was to leap into the modern age of entreprenuership. At the time, it would appear the Anwar war was largely about a clash of personalities, and perhaps the refusal of Anwar to dance and to some extent, integrity within Umno.

What now? What are they fighting about?

Mostly just about power, it appears. This is true of the previous battles as well, but to a greater extent than before, ideology is playing less of a role. Competence is, though, to some extent.

While there are somewhat commendable idealogues in the party, none of them seem to be in the major game; they are more like sideline attractions.

So, what possible fates for the soul of Umno?

1. No real change, Version 1.

Somehow, Abdullah quashes all the opposition, and eventually engineers a smooth succession to Najib, and Umno remains exactly as we know it.

2. No real change, Version 2.

Here, Abdullah is toppled in a relatively smooth fashion. Someone else takes over - Najib, Ku Li, or even Muhyiddin - I don’t think it will make much difference.

3. The party is ripped apart by infighting.

The various players go for broke, leading to excessive instability and a heavy casualty war of attrition - stones fly in the glass house.

I think this is unlikely, but if it happens, the possibility of crossovers or fresh elections leading to a Pakatan led government becomes likely as it may be the only option for stability.

4. The party reforms itself.

By some miracle, reformist voices in the party force the rest to realise that greater integrity and rejection of corruption is the only way forward. Even more miraculously, corruption is actually cut down.
If this is the case, I suppose we will have our relatively sustainable two party system - albeit one where initially, the only major differentiation ideologically will be the role of race in politics. On more practical terms, it will come down simply to who does a better job of governance. Not a bad result, all in all.

*

I try to avoid speculation where I can. I suppose people like Ezam may dream of the Fourth Fate (although why he has to resign from an anti-corruption NGO just to join Umno eludes me…. or does it?), but to do so would probably ignore the lessons of history.

I suppose we will have to wait and see.

I agree that Pakatan would be well advised to keep an eye on things, and position itself properly, but focus most of its resources on strengthening their internal institutions as well as relationships, and above all else, concentrate on the governing with competence, integrity, and compassion.

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
8 Comments »

As if the decision of the entire sitting leadership to stay put wasn’t enough, Mukhriz bin Mahathir has decided not to heed the clarion call. A knife in the back, almost.

I think all is said and done; Mahathir will continue his attacks on Abdullah, but he has gambled his political capital, and lost it in an entirely humiliating fashion. Some may say it is well deserved, but one can almost feel pity for the newly soiled legacy of the once mighty.

Abdullah may have even scored points at Mahathir’s expense. I imagine this closing of ranks behind Abdullah - somewhat more substantial than I expected, does not bode particularly well for Ku Li, Najib, et al.

Mahathir’s bet was so high that everyone else folded, and it looks like Abdullah may have taken the pot for now, putting the other players in a weaker position. Perhaps Mahathir should have had a broader interpretation of the ban against gambling.

Well, at least he has Mokhzani and a grand total of 156 members of a division in Kedah for company thus far. Quite frankly, I’m surprised it hasn’t been more; those waiting to see how the wind blows however probably need not wait any longer.

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
8 Comments »

As polytikus wryly observed, the signature of TDM’s resignation blog post:

Dr Mahathir bin Mohamad (bekas ahli UMNO No 1)
Dr Siti Hasmah binti Mohd Ali (bekas ahli UMNO No 2)

making Sanusi Junid bekas ahli Umno No 3.

Ok. And number 4?………..

Yes, too early to tell, but the first 24 hours do not bode well for our friend.

No Mukhriz (”needs time to think“), no backbenchers, no division leaders.

Ku Li staying put; Najib is a follower of change, not an initiator of one; Muhyiddin, Hisham, Ali Rustam, Rafidah, Tengku Adnan - all quiet.

Well, they’re probably making a lot of demands internally; their prices must be continuously going up and one has to wonder about the state of Pak Lah’s war chest.

It also appears that Mahathir has suceeded in almost literally stealing the headlines from the Lingam report out today.

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
8 Comments »

Ah, will the old man’s antics never end?

The last time Mahathir tried to test his strength, attempting to get elected as a delegate from Kubang Pasu, he failed quite miserably.

But it will be very interesting to see how he fares this time.

What will Ku Li do? Najib? Mukhriz? The rest of the cabinet? How many members will follow suit?

Will Umno members be emboldened by the example of Semangat 46, when everyone was accepted back into the fold?

If I were Abdullah, I would tell Umno members that whoever quits can forget about coming back.

It’s anyone’s guess, but my very initial gut feeling is that Mahathir’s unlikely to cause a Semangat 46 scale rupture.

I also join those who feel that this has something to do with the Lingam report - what better way than to keep the Royal Commission off the headlines for a few days?

In any case, all this highlights is that the internal instability and pandemic leadership crisis of Umno makes it a party completely unfit to run the country. How can the rakyat’s interests come first when all they do is bicker among themselves?

Mahathir’s uncharacteristic naivety also assumes that changing Umno’s leadership will heal all its problems in one swift stroke. Unfortunately for them, his moves are only deepening the very same rifts (even with regards to the Umno myth of “Malay unity”) that will continue to make an unstable Umno a dangerous choice for helming Malaysia.

ps- If enough Umno MP’s quit the party, will BN no longer command a simple majority? Hmmm…

Tags: Umno by Nathaniel Tan
20 Comments »