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2009 February » jelas.info » Page 3

Friends,

The time is has come, and it falls upon us to defend democracy and the primacy of suara rakyat above all.

In this pivotal moment, where a choice must be made between allowing money and power to determine who leads us and allowing the people to chose their own leaders; where there are none but ourselves left to stand and protect our right to determine our own fates, allow me to quote from a recently delivered speech:

Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Yes, I understand that we may one day be on the opposite side of the fence, and I hope that should a takeover of the federal government by crossover come to be a possibility, leaders of Pakatan Rakyat will also support a move to dissolve parliament in favour of fresh elections. I may not have fully realised the importance of doing so before, but I do now.

Yes, in the end the Sultan has a constitutional right to decide as he sees fit, and we may then be back to the question of whether the pre-signed letters of resignation for the 2 state seats are valid, and then see whether by-elections will be held.

All that said, it is my fervent belief that the interests of both Perakians and Malaysians as a whole is to let the most important stakeholder decide for themselves who is qualified to run the state of Perak: Perakians themselves, through statewide elections. Electoral results are hard to argue with.

The lack of confidence in BN leaders and the clear indications (as seen by recent trends) of what the results of a snap elections would be aside, I think it is fair to say that there is only way to (relatively) justly, equitably and decisively determine who Perakians want to lead them.

I feel that as a Malaysian, I have a stake in the decision to dissolve or not. I feel that I, and every conscientious Malaysian, should make their feelings felt to the Sultan, in an appeal to the palace’s better nature.

I intend to do this by showing up in Ipoh tomorrow night, insyallah. If I am able to make the necessary arrangements, my hope is to attend the solidarity gathering at the Perak Stadium at about 7pm, Thursday night, the 5th of February.

The major Pakatan leaders are expected to attend, I sincerely hope you will too.

It will be a bit of a drive, but I think it’s worth it to ensure that proper precedents are set, and to defend the future health of our democracy.

I remain hopeful that the palace will share the view that there are far too many uncertainties for either a Pakatan or BN led government to lay claim to legitimate, truly representative rule at this current juncture.

Interestingly, YM Sultan Azlan Shah himself is reported to have given a legal opinion on this very matter in the past:

While one cannot second guess the sultan, it would nevertheless be timely to be reminded of what the sultan himself wrote in his book Constitutional Monarchy, Rule of Law and Good Governance in 2004.

“Under normal circumstances, it is taken for granted that the Yang di-Pertuan Agong would not withhold his consent to a request for dissolution of parliament. His role is purely formal.”

He also added that no sultan or agung had withheld consent to dissolve legislative body, except in Kelantan in 1977.

His son seems to have the right ideas too. This very day, the news reported Raja Nazrin’s recent speech. Among other quotes:

Raja Nazrin said as the head of state and country, a Ruler must always ensure that whatever he said and did were not misinterpreted and misunderstood.

He added that the power entrusted by God must be discharged with responsibility because the Ruler would be judged in the hereafter.

“As such, power must be exercised to implement good practices. The Ruler’s nobility and honour, position and sovereignty do not come automatically,” he said.

So we’ve heard all the right talk; the right walk at this juncture will ensure the already high regard for the royal family of Perak for generations and generations to come.

Update: Looks like YAB Nizar has made his case, and Tuanku is deciding. It’s tense for us all, but we’ll continue to wait.

Fingers are pointing to a bad beat today for Pakatan.

But a) I think this view is fallacious, and b) only the weak despair. The strong fight back.

I’m confident and optimistic. BN may get all excited about this little scrap that may have fallen off the table, but at the end of the day, it is democracy and the will of the people that count.

As promised, here is a numbers based analysis of why a complete dissolution of the Perak State Assembly and snap elections are necessary and imperative – without which any BN led government in Perak will be a farce that insults the people.

The chart below, sourced from undi.info with my colleague’s help, shows that in March 2008 TEN state seats in Perak which were won by BN with a majority of less than 1,000. All of these seats had a total voting turn out of about 10,000 or more. Furthermore, SIX of the ten seats mentioned were won with a majority of less than 500. (see seats in bold)

Let us now take into consideration the political mood of the country, at least as measured by the only two by-elections since March 8. Both these elections saw massive swings towards Pakatan.

Is there any non-partisan analyst or observer out there who is going to seriously argue against all facts and indications that support for BN has increased?

Note that we are talking about a west coast state with a large urban, educated, politically savvy population. If the waves can be felt so strongly in faraway Kuala Terengganu, what reason could Perak possibly have for bucking the trend?

Even along ethnic lines, Kuala Terengganu demonstrated a strong Malay swing. The west coast Chinese in 2008 voted overwhelmingly for Pakatan (there is no Chinese majority BN seat I think), and I think after Hindraf and Kugan, most Indians hate BN more than ever.

Following this trend, Pakatan will not only retain the seats it won in March, but probably add at least a good 10 more seats to its fold. This would give it a two thirds majority in the state assembly.

Under such circumstances, how can BN possibly claim to be legitimate and representative rulers of Perak? Does Najib have the balls to test his legitimacy against the will of the people?

Failing this, the takeover will be a sham, and the palace’s decision not to dissolve the assembly to let the rakyat decide their choice of government conclusively for themselves will seem strange, to say the least.

YM Sultan Azlan Shah and Raja Nazrin have spent a lot of effort building a great reputation for themselves – now is the time to truly test it.

At time of writing, the palace still holds the key to determining whether democracy is alive and well in Malaysia or not.

ps- see RPK for similar analysis.

BN Pakatan
Seat Party Votes Party Votes Majority
N5 Selama Umno 5,240 PAS 4,885 -355
N6 Kubu Gajah Umno 4,114 PAS 4,048 -66
N10 Alor Pongsu Umno 5,585 PKR 5,490 -95
N15 Trong Umno 4,212 PAS 3,296 -916
N16 Kamunting Umno 7,975 PAS 7,420 -555
N23 Manjoi Umno 14,804 PAS 14,456 -348
N35 Manong Umno 5,391 PAS 4,642 -749
N36 Pengkalan Baru Umno 5,375 PAS 5,361 -14
N43 Sungai Rapat Umno 10,635 PAS 9,999 -636
N53 Rungkup Umno 4,984 PAS 4,530 -454

So, rumours abound of Najib’s wet dream coming true (no, I’m not talking about anything Mongolian) – word is BN will offer to form the Perak government based on the 3 crossovers.

Before anyone gets their panties in a twist, I would strongly urge you to look at Malaysiakini’s undi.info numbers on the 2008 election results in Perak.

I’m going to do more detailed research on this soon and publish it. The conclusion should be that by no stretch of the imagination would any political observer predict a win for BN should there be snap elections in Perak called today.

If this is so, any BN-led government in Perak must be seen to be illegitimate and unrepresentative. Any attempt by BN to form a government in Perak that would aspire to even the lowest levels of honour and commitment to democracy should include announcing snap elections of their own.

Anyway, words are cheap. Lemme do the numbers for you and be right back.

Update: His memorial service Thursday and Friday 8pm at Gui Yuan / PJ Modern Casket, Jln 229 Section 51A (Kg Tunku). The funeral is on Saturday at 10am. For further information please contact 6012 358 6900

Malaysia lost a young, brilliant and good hearted gentleman today :( :(

His name is Markus Ng. I did not know him well, but we had a few good conversations at the PJ Sunday night vigils.

He was my younger sister’s age, worked for Unicef, and had a keen mind which he used extensively to think about ways to make Malaysia better.

He passed away peacefully last night, but under circumstances as of yet unclear.

We’ve seen so many young ones go before their time recently. Shukree, Toni, Salman..

We will miss you all. Deepest condolences to the family for this terrible loss :(

Update: Well, here’s some of the legal opinion requested below, AND a potential answer as well to the question of – just how big is Najib’s warchest?

Roller coaster ride continues!

Some developments:

It appears that the legality of undated, pre-signed letters of resignation are still in question – any legal opinions or precedents on the matter (I heard someone mention a past case in Sabah or something)?

More excitingly, some opine that there is a rift, or at the very least a lack of coordinated strategy between Najib and Abdullah in this whole issue.

I forgot to mention yesterday, that one major factor fuelling this chaos is the fact that Najib probably craves some sort of win very desperately, with his image crumbling after Kuala Terengganu, Bota and so on.

Perak would have been the gift on the (as it were) silver platter. Take over the state government, be the hero! He even moved to personally oversee the Perak BN/Umno leadership – just in time to take all credit for any such coup d’etat (oh how funny it would be if it backfired).

Amidst all this, perhaps Abdullah is less than happy to see Najib become a glorified hero (don’t forget how tenuous the position of Abdullah and his cronies will be should the Najib ascendancy be realised). Either that, or he wants a piece of the action and credit too.

Pakatan has been equal to the political game thus far. Submitting the letters of resignation at this stage may or may not have been a tad premature, and perhaps not entirely popular (depending on what the two have to say after this) but perhaps it was done as a sign to any other Pakatan reps who were entertaining funny ideas.

In any case, I think the stakes are high here. It’s early to say conclusively, but the potential is there that we might be looking at the final showdown. If Pakatan were to increase its majority in Perak, and strike successfully in Negeri, we’ll probably get our new dawn for Malaysia. Let’s watch close!

Update: I think the latest word is that we will be seeing at least two by-elections in the two seats vacated by the missing PKR reps.

Talk about volatile.

Let me summarise, just to take stock. Two PKR state assemblymen have been held incommunicado, one DAP assemblywoman has been conspicuously absent of late.

Let’s recount the worst case scenario. Assuming all three crossover to BN, there is still the matter of undated letters of resignation for the Pakatan representatives that were signed back in March 2008. A brilliant insurance tactic, in hindsight.

If political chaos were truly to reign, there is always the complete dissolution of the Perak state assembly, necessitating fresh elections for the whole state. The only thing that can stand in the way of this is the lack of the Sultan’s approval, or some sort of martial law imposed by the Federal Government.

If fresh elections are held, whether state-wide or only as by-elections in a few constituencies, I do believe that the momentum is clearly on Pakatan’s side, so I say bring it on.

Amidst the hubris, I found encouragement in RPK’s piece today, whose views on Umno’s modus operandi I found particularly apt and interesting. Perhaps more on that later, but at the heart of it is a reminder that not all men and women fall prey to threats and inducements. Many have, but not all will.

If the ‘vulnerable’ state assemblypeople come out of this loyal to the cause, out of commitment to principles, I for one will be their biggest fans.

But much remains to be seen. I’ll withhold further comment until then.

ps- All the jazz Abdullah and Najib were pulling back in September about the morality of crossovers seems to have disappeared into smoke eh?

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