jelas.info

Sorry for the holiday absence, hope your new year has been great! More on Kugan, race and criminality to come I hope, but for now some words on mainstream politics.

Imagine for a moment, that you were a BN elected representative. You’ve perhaps been a loyal servant to the party, well-behaved and such, but not particularly prominent or given the attention you deserve.

Now, you look at Datuk Nasaruddin of Bota, Perak fame. You hear of the money, prominence and positions (MB no less! *if* BN wins Perak backla :) offered not only to him, but even to those like him in Perak who are merely rumoured to be reconsidering their political affiliations.

Maybe you start to feel like the brother of the prodigal son – toiled loyally for years, but forced to see the ‘naughty’ boy who ‘squandered’ the family fortune instead be the one feted with pomp and circumstance, and offered all manner of inducements.

Let’s also take into account the political atmosphere of the country.

All eyes are on Najib, as he is apparently poised to take over the country’s highest office within weeks. For all means and purposes, it would appear that Najib’s premiership has already begun. When’s the last time you heard Abdullah make any comment whatsoever on national issues?

Najib remains one of Umno’s last cards to play. If Najib’s Umno presidency fails to turn the party and its political fortunes around, then the logical conclusion to the man in the street will be that it is not just Abdullah who has failed Umno, but Umno which has failed itself; the party’s snowballing relegation to the recently quoted ‘wrong side of history’ will become increasingly apparent. Perceptions in politics have a tendency to become self-fulfilling prophecies.

And what’s the report card on Najib so far? Massacred in KT, facing a defection crisis in Perak, squabbling among his second tier of leadership…

Some things in life speak for themselves, and cannot really be spun, no matter how hard one may try. One may speak of wrong candidates aligned to and chosen by the wrong people, or concoct elaborate conspiracy theories about MB post offers by Pakatan, etcetera, till the cows come home, but the facts remain as they are. And those facts don’t reflect particularly well on our man Najib.

Seems like a guy who doesn’t need more trouble on his hands.

Trouble say, of the defectionary nature.

After all, I think any political analyst will say that for all their imperfections, Pakatan is the side with the greater momentum at this particular juncture – a coalition of the future, one might say. Loyalty to principles are always welcome, but if – and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case for the group in question – one is more interested in backing the winning horse, then……

So let’s say you’re a BN elected representative, seeing Najib in his current highly pressurised state; the kind of state wherein you might be willing to spend considerable amounts just to make problems go away, and make it in one piece to the finish line – one denied so many times before, and now so close he (and his wife?) can almost taste it.

Not to be a batu api or what, but wouldn’t it be an interesting time to at least find out *just* how big his war chest is?… :)

Well. I hope those on the right side of the politics of principle will remain steadfast to their values and integrity. If there’s (perfectly justifiable, if only in terms of self interest) money grubbing on the other side of the fence, I suppose the instability will work for us anyway. Lastly, for those men and women of character stuck on that wrong side, allow me to quote a better writer than me: “You better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone, for the times, they are a changin’” :)

There’s an orgy of blame out there.

Pro-Najib gang = KT’s defeat is all because of Abdullah (and his dumb candidate), no reflection whatsoever of the rakyat’s confidence in him

Anti-Najib gang = KT’s defeat is all because of Najib.

You know what the funny thing is? Can you imagine what would have happened if BN won KT?

Pro-Najib gang = KT’s glorious victory is all because of Najib, a perfect reflection of the rakyat’s confidence in him.

Anti-Najib gang = KT’s glorious victory is all because of Abdullah (and his brilliant candidate).

:)

As I said earlier, I don’t think I/we have the tools to make a detailed and accurate analysis of what exactly caused the KT results. I generally concur with Malik Imtiaz who says such analyses may be a tad overrated and is currently a saturated market.

Ideally, I would love to see Pakatan taking advantage of Umno’s obsession with finger pointing and spin doctoring, and focus on building the fundamentals of future electoral success – good governance, sincere service and integrity.

Looking ahead, there might be even more fireworks to come as March looms.

Perhaps some in the Abdullah camp are having Godfather fantasies. If you recall the story, as Michael Corleone appears at his weakest and his enemies close in on him, he strikes swiftly, viciously, and without warning – eliminating his competition in a single, brutal stroke.

I know we would all not imagine our old and doting Pak Lah to be capable of such things, but let’s not forget that if he was acting alone all this time, he wouldn’t have even made it this far.

Let’s also not forget the ongoing trials. Altantuya’s murder trial still has all the potential for the strangest, most explosive surprises. Anwar’s trial begins (I think) on February 5th. The courts may provide some interesting avenues of action for Pak Lah, especially in what many may perceive as a position of weakness for Najib post-KT.

We also know Abdullah is no longer an ISA virgin (incidentally, those assaulted in the anti-ISA + Bersih commemorative rally at Amcorp in PJ now suddenly appear, after apparently being let off, to be hauled back up to be charged – another indication of nervousness of the growing PJ vigil community).

Another option open to Abdullah is to hold snap elections, and let Najib meet his potential end at the hands of the rakyat (as the voting trends might suggest he will).

If I were Abdullah, I’d seriously consider this because I might be better off with Anwar as the next PM instead of Najib.

With Najib as PM, all the (pro-Najib especially) Umnoputeras sidelined and marginalised during the Abdullah era will be out for blood revenge. With Anwar in power, said Umnoputeras will not be in any position of strength to threaten Abdullah and his gang. Pakatan has nothing to gain by vilifying Abdullah and his lackeys in particular.

I mean, having done what he did to Mahathir and gang, I think Abdullah would be particularly cautious about any handover of power.

Let’s keep our eyes open, and our powder dry – a long way to go!

Firstly, hearty congrats and thanks once again to all those who worked so hard for the victory.

Let’s try to put our analytical hats back on.

One of the many beauties of numbers = they can mean anything.

I don’t think we have the data collecting capability to really determine what any single factor caused the election results (I feel such social phenomena are ‘overdetermined’ – caused by too many factors to accurately isolate). Thus, my interest in the whys are less than my interest in the what’s nexts.

The crowds seem to be pointing their fingers at Najib, which I suppose is fair.

I wrote some time back that the choice of candidate could make it easy for him and his lackeys to blame Abdullah, but judging by the early responses, the crowd doesn’t seem to buy that line.

His one upshoot is that he has one less Abdullah man in Parliament to deal with, should he truly ascend.

It still sounds like most of the higher ups knew what the outcome was going to be. Abdullah, who made appearances in Ijok and I think Permatang Pauh, wisely stayed far away from this one – perhaps happy to watch Najib fall on his face.

All in all, one of the best of the many positive after effects of KT for Pakatan may be increased infighting within Umno. In our wildest dreams, we may even find Abdullah and gang using this to severely undermine Najib and his plans to ascend (don’t forget, the Altantuya trial is back on! Nobody knows what those guys may say).

Pakatan can also spin the number 2,631 to mean all manner of bright and rosy things. It’s tough to argue with victory. Most of all, we can expect great excitement for Sarawak and perhaps the potential by-election in Pensiangan.

The momentum comes at a good time. I’m sure many feared that the new coalition was flailing, especially post Sept. 16. Coupled with some Obamamentum this week, we can hope for optimistic sentiment for the longer view.

I’m not sure it’ll help too much in facilitating some much needed internal strengthening (Karpal and his sparring mates seem to have no interest in ceasing to belligerently state the obvious), but morale can be expected to be good.

The coup de grace of course, is if we see Anwar’s talk – unheard of in months – of defections, now complete with specific details of where they are from and now in a staggered instead of instant takeover form, come true.

Well, let us enjoy the victory, celebrate, break for New Year, then get back to working for change!

ps- did I forget to say Happy Ponggal? Happy Ponggal! :)

pps- Let us also welcome the Gaza ceasefire with hope!