Musa, Gani, Dollah, Najib converge? Reading the Cornered Animal Mentality

Update 4pm: It looks like Anwar’s (much better informed, usually) reading implicates Dollah unrestrainedly – pretty much openly accusing him of collaborating with the police to take him down (“Burning the forest to save his own tree”). He seems even light on the AG. Very interesting. Maybe Dollah does indeed have Najib whipped.

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“Not again. Not this time. The line must be drawn here! This far, no farther.”
- picard

After some reflection, here are some salient issues, to my mind.

The question that prompted them: What is the plan?

Earlier, I posited two main possibilities. The first being the authorities are still trying to provoke Malaysians – especially PKR supporters – to violent, chaotic behaviour and use such a situation as an excuse to impose an emergency.

The second, which is not mutually exclusive with the first, deserves more fleshing out.

The one thing Musa, Gani, Dollah and Najib all share in common is that their lives would probably be a helluva lot better with Anwar out of the picture.

It is also very important to note that the best analogy to understand the motivations of these individuals and their allies is one of a cornered animal.

As I have repeated ad naseum, those in power have absolutely nothing left to lose. Anwar coming to power is, in their narrow view, quite simply the absolute and most devastatingly worst of all worst case scenarios. Everything that has happened thus far, after all, have led Anwar closer to his holy grail of the premiership.

When this worst of worst case scenarios is indeed what the authorities are looking credibly at, the alternatives – no matter how unpalatable – don’t look so bad.

The difference between the civil servants and the politicians is how much they have to worry about their reputations. Earlier, we argued that the civil servants are much less under public scrutiny and that the public was in any case much more used to directing their anger at BN politicians.

This, in general, accounts for the the use of such high-handed tactics during Anwar’s initial arrest, and what we can only speculate was the fallout between the cops and the government that followed (let us not forget the other recent high profile big bucks ACA investigation into police affairs).

However, perhaps the politicians and the civil servants have found a safe middle ground which meets their primary goal: keeping Anwar out of power.

Let’s say Anwar is charged, a kangaroo court hears his case, and finds him guilty (not difficult to arrange in Lingam-land, no matter how sketchy the evidence). The sentence can be heavy (long jail time, likely to incur street wrath, bringing us back to option A) or light (a simple fine?).

Even in case of the latter, the primary objective is still achieved. As a convict, Anwar cannot be Prime Minister – for another 5 years, at the absolute very least.

He may still be causing trouble, but both Umno and our law enforcement agencies conceivably think that with Anwar out of Parliament, most – if not all – of their troubles are solved and/or postponed (ah, but what a miscalculation that could be).

Just as in 2000, it is sadly barely consequential what ordinary Malaysians or the rest of world thinks with regards to the legitimacy of any given judgment, especially if the appeal process goes to the Federal Court; that judgment stands, baring any change to our system that can only be described as revolutionary.

The price exacted by such revolutions can be pretty high. I hope Malaysia will draw the line long before we reach that stage.

I think that given the current power landscape, the ever more vivid possibility of an Anwar premiership, and the sheer lack of alternative options left, make such a strategy quite attractive to the powers that be.

All the while, the backup plan of instigating a chaotic uprising with the view to Emergency rule remains another card in their pockets.

In summary, we may be looking at a potentially very dangerous convergence of interests – where once there was more disarray – between the men who are supposed to be busying themselves with running an economy and protecting our well being; not running scared trying to protect their own asses.

What do we do?

Firstly, we must not despair. A game of poker is a lot about posturing, but at the end of any given hand, you have to see who has the cards and who doesn’t. The fat lady ain’t sung yet, we are just as skilled a player as anyone as at the table, and our cards spell Truth. I like our odds.

We have to play those cards better than ever, and must not – under absolutely no circumstances whatsoever – fall for the trap that ends in Emergency rule. Discipline, vigilance, wits and an ability to persuade will be pivotal to this.

The rakyat have been stripped of much of their leverage over the years by an overbearing government. Nonetheless, no government can operate without the cooperation and legitimisation of their citizenry.

These are some core principles to keep in mind as we continue to watch how the situation unfolds tomorrow (keep an eye out for the specific charge, and whether or not bail is allowed).

On the Pakatan side, only this: Let’s make sure we have a good candidate to temporarily carry the PM’s mantle, just in case.

Stay calm, but stay vigilant. The time for us to stand up and be counted may be near.