At midnight, I went out to a balcony by myself and started watching the fireworks alone, a little lost in memory.. fireworks have recently acquired that effect.
I could hear Negaraku coming from the Curve or thereabouts, and stepping out into Malaysia’s humid night brought home the sensation of being back after travelling a fair bit over the years.
Anyway. Here’s echoing Haris that we soon have an independent judiciary, media and all that jazz. Barulah Merdeka :)
A survey of the political landscape ahead is timely. The combined momentum of Permatang Pauh and the steady one-upmanship Pakatan has enjoyed in recent months make the prospects of a new government an increasingly compelling possibility.
If in March, parliamentarians considering crossing from BN to Pakatan were concerned that they would jump and find no one behind them, the landscape seems to have changed to the point where many may worry that if they don’t commit to jumping now, they may be left behind on the wrong side of the fence.
The fact that all the binds BN together is racially divided power sharing means that without power, all there is left of BN is racial division; seems a terrible creek to be up without a paddle.
Given the huge stakes, we must ponder with grave seriousness how BN, or more specifically Umno, will react to this threat.
My view is that Umno has still been playing with their gloves on. Attempts thus far to frustrate Anwar’s bid for Putrajaya appear almost half hearted and disorganised; the word bumbling admittedly comes to mind.
Perhaps Umno has continued to live in denial and hope against hope. It is dangerous and foolhardy to assume that this thinking will prevail in the face of growing “cornered animal” instincts kicking in. Umno stands to lose everything, and the word everything is not used lightly; it seems unlikely that they will sit idle while the government is taken from under their noses.
If and when they awake, Umno’s top leadership will find an arsenal of weapons with which they could potentially take out Anwar, and by extension, Pakatan.
Let’s start with the relatively mild. First, there is always actual reform and trying to buy the heart of Malaysians via various goodies in the new budget and such; I don’t think there’s any evidence at all to suggest that BN is likely to take this route lock, stock, and barrel – which is the only way it would work.
There is also trying to get on the good side of the YDP Agong; many possible scenarios for both BN and Pakatan are technically at the discretion of the sovereign.
Next, we note that it would be a simple matter to fix the sodomy case, ala the 1998 trials. Certainly, they would look like fools and suffer the wrath of the international community; but is that so high a price to pay to escape extinction and fears of being prosecuted themselves?
This is after all the yardstick against we must measure all potential options available to Umno: that they will lose federal power not only in these elections, but essentially forever.
The feudal structure of Malaysian politics and the manner in which every BN politician alive today is born and bred on the premise that to be BN is to be in power; remove power, and all that remains is some vague racial ideology that is decades behind present day global political correctness.
If Anwar is convicted in the courts and should appeals all the way to the Federal Court fail, it will take quite a bit of undoing to redeem the mess, no matter how drastic a sham the legal process may be. International pressure alone is not likely to yield any significant change; our leaders are known to have thick skin when they need to. All in all, it’s still a bargain, if it keeps Anwar out of power.
Ops Lalang II is the next option, in terms of intensity – simply round up all the major Pakatan leaders and detain them without trial, crippling Pakatan to the point of inoperability.
Assassination, in all honesty, is probably still a bargain as well. Yes, there will be a massive uproar, Anwar will be martyred, and discontent will reach unprecedented levels. Yet, at the end of the day, police investigations will be inconclusive, Anwar will be gone, and Pakatan becomes eminently vulnerable.
With or without an assassination, there is also the opportunity to engineer large scale street chaos and violence, using the 1969 Emergency as a model of how to engineer a transfer of power.
Do these measures sound unreasonably extreme and unlikely? To you and me perhaps, but once again, we must take the perspective of individuals who are looking at a lifetime legacy of destroying their political party, losing all access to wealth and power, and facing some serious prospects of significant jail time.
I think under those circumstances, prospects of facing derision and shaming by the international community as well as local storms that will hopefully just blow over, start to sound a little more tolerable than usual.
One of the few factors generating resistance for BN/Umno to embark on any ‘adventurous’ tactics is the lack of unity amidst its top leadership. Ever since March 8th, Umno leaders especially have had to fight battles on multiple fronts, exhausting their already stretched resources.
This situation may somewhat dilute any attempt at concentrated scheming. Unfortunately, this same intra-BN/Umno disarray is exactly what will make for a weak, distracted ruling coalition whose ability to govern strongly and well may be compromised considerably.
One controversial option to forestall any such drastic measures by the powers that be is for Malaysians to push for a change of government – either by crossovers, or calling for a snap general election (a potential last resort for BN, which is good for democracy, but unlikely to forestall the ruling coalition’s demise). While less than ideal, these remain some of the few ways we can avoid a descent into chaos and desperation within BN, and by extension within Malaysia.
Malaysia has crossed one defining moment only to find itself at the cusp of another. In light of the ultra high stakes cost-benefit calculations facing Umno leaders, we must now increase our vigilance and prepare to resist, both peacefully vigorously, any attempt to usurp democracy and the rule of law. Malaysians are now called upon to use well informed people power to provide a rock steady bulwark against any vicious and desperate manoeuvring.
My internet at home been down for a few days now, which is a terrible time to catch a cough. (Big thanks to my homies at ACTS who provided free medical care! :D )
So, a 1000 apologies for a shortcut, but this KeADILan statement pretty much sums up my feeling on the matter:
Government should keep promise to MSC
Parti Keadilan Rakyat deplores the instruction given by the MCMC to all Malaysian Internet Service Providers to block access to the website Malaysia Today.
This decision is tantamount to internet censorship and is the latest onslaught on the civil liberties that are the right of all Malaysians. It is also a desperate act by the Barisan Nasional government that is still reeling from its repeated defeats and refusing to listen to the clear signals demonstrated by the rakyat time and again via the ballot box.
The grounds given that Malaysia Today is a seditious website are completely baseless and unfounded in any principle of law, given that there are ample laws which govern such activities and there has yet to be a single court in all of Malaysia that has found the website to contain seditious content.
Once again, the government has shown complete contempt for the principle of being innocent until proven guilty.
As we have seen throughout the world, “pre-emptive strikes” such as these are weak and pathetic attempts to hide a desperation borne of absolute moral bankruptcy.
We also view with seriousness the possibility that this is merely the first step in a comprehensive and reprehensible attempt to curb the access of conscientious Malaysians to the Internet, which in the past few years has been the bastion of freedom for all seeking any views alternative to the propaganda of the BN dominated mainstream media.
KeADILan calls upon the MCMC and the government to keep its promise to the MSC and to immediately revoke this order, and resist any temptation to arrogantly show callous disregard for the right of Malaysians to access alternative information.
DATO SALEHUDDIN HASHIM
Secretary General
Parti Keadilan Rakyat
I guess it’s anyone’s guess whether the numbers will be there come September 16.
Obviously, no one will consider my view particularly objective :) But I get this feeling that the momentum is really building - a) the momentum for change, b) the momentum at which BN is crumbling.
I’m trying to see it from the perspective of the BN politicians, especially given the endemic infighting and blame game within Umno (the knives are out for Abdullah again I see) - what is really in their best interests right now?
In the beginning, it seemed like the big concern was: “If I jump first, everyone will be out to get me.” By now, maybe it’s like “If I don’t jump now, I’m going to get left behind, and on the wrong side of the fence.”
*Shrugs*
Some also think BN is too quiet, with such an imminent threat at their doorstep - calm before the storm? In any case, we’ll be staying vigilant.
*
I’ve come down with a bit of a cough :( So may miss my Puccini & Civil Society Awards night, but will see I guess, maybe some guardian angel will call and give me a ride :P
:D
Tomorrow, it’s back to work (finally started writing the longer piece long in mind :)
A great big hug to all those who worked on the Permatang Pauh campaign - thank you for carrying the nation’s burden, our burden, and my burden - on your back.
Woo hoo!
Back in March, on the eve of the election, it seemed like there was so much to write. Many things have changed in these 5 months, and some things have not (like BN).
On the eve of Permatang Pauh, an event we hope will be yet another pivotal step towards a better Malaysia, I must admit that I can’t yet think of that much more to say that hasn’t been said already. I think I’ll have more to write about by tomorrow night or so.
The odds favour justice, but with continuing threats of voter fraud and hanky panky, I suppose I would call upon all those who believe to pray for a clean election, no descent into malicious disruptions, and a result for the betterment of our nation. The window for the authorities to engineer evil remains open, so our we must remain ever vigilant and ready.
As the man who remains Malaysia’s best hope for vigorous and just leadership, our thoughts are with Anwar and his colleagues, as we enter the final lap.
All those in Permatang Pauh, enjoy the fireworks tonight!
Firstly, thanks to all those who presented and listened last Saturday afternoon - good meeting everyone :)
Apart perhaps from Ramlang Poringi (yes, yet another twisted - but I suppose positive - twist, from the imam who witnessed Saiful’s sumpah), I feel like there may not be that much to write until we see the numbers and reactions Wednesday onwards. I’m optimistic, but I’m sure it’s not too late to donate to the campaign and such. It should be a historic day.
In the meantime, remember the KLSCAH Civil Society Awards? It turns out, as I learnt over the radio, that it’ll coincide temporally and locationally with a Puccini concert :)
I listen to and enjoy a lot of a music, spanning quite a stretch of history, and have to say that even when measured against centuries of music, Pucinni remains one of my favourite composers :) All the more reason to drop by :)
If they show up for the awards ceremony, it’ll be nice to see friends I haven’t in a really long time. Used to spend a lot of time down at the KLSCAH, some really good memories…
