Invisible Hands: Digging Out the True Motives of Anwar’s Arrest
Malaysiakini was kind enough to publish a piece I co-authored. Thanks guys! -
“When you eliminate the impossible, that which remains – no matter how implausible – must be true”
“In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is king”
Since Saiful’s accusation, things have moved so hard and so fast that real, considered analysis of the bigger picture has been difficult.
Reflecting on the 24 hours of Anwar’s arrest allows us a good chance to take a step back and make some responsible and analytical suppositions.
Let us begin by highlighting some of the more salient features of Malaysia’s current political climate: a leadership vacuum.
Abdullah is universally – and the word “universally” is not used lightly – perceived as weak. Najib either refused to go for Abdullah’s jugular when he could have, or has been held back both now and then by threats of solid proof emerging to validate what are already widely believed implications of his involvement in a certain crime.
Let’s also be perfectly honest. Neither of these men command any serious popularity; I can barely think of any significant group of people who get excited about Abdullah/Najib as their “hero.”
That kind of accolade can only perhaps be given to Anwar Ibrahim, whose single largest failing appears to be not having a total of about 130 parliamentarians on his side at the moment – another considerable obstacle.
Other contenders for the throne are quite simply unrealistic and hardly worth mentioning.
The last few weeks appear to indicate a stalemate, based in large part on the limitations described above to be facing the three men. Abdullah can’t make himself appear strong and popular, Najib can’t shake his ghosts, and Anwar hasn’t yet pulled the rabbit out of his hat.
Invisible Players
The question we should now ask is: what does this mean for other, less visible players and stakeholders in this game?
In conducting this analysis, we must move beyond front page politicians and examine the other power brokers in the country.
For today’s purpose, let’s concentrate on some heads of law enforcement and perhaps take a glance at some former prime politicians.
For these gentlemen, two things are extremely bad for business: a power vacuum, and Anwar coming to power (let us not forget the subject matter of the ACA statement Anwar gave literally minutes before his arrest).
It is worth noting that of the two factors, in circumstances of the former, the latter becomes ever more likely.
As long as Abdullah and Najib continue to fight, Anwar’s chances of achieving the premiership become higher and higher. It appears that some were less than convinced by Abdullah’s and Najib’s 2010 deal – which plausibly was announced to buy time, placate the Umno masses and give the false impression of stability.
Some could very well view that the stalemate that exists is neither a peaceful nor stable one. In the absence of a domineering power ala Hobbes’ Leviathan, warring parties are always likely to continue fighting their war, bringing everyone down with them – the parameters of the game make it such that there is simply too much at stake to act otherwise.
Refusing to be taken down together
One problem that arises is that the “everyone” that stands to be brought down together with the sinking ship may have ideas of their own.
The conclusion that the police were merely flexing their muscles in Anwar’s arrest as a show of brute strength is overly simplistic. The signal was not to Anwar, but to the factions in the ruling party: “Don’t forget that we are players too, and don’t think that we will let you take us down with you.”
Abdullah may have even gotten wind of potential disloyalty where he disengaged the safety locks on the ACA and gave it its own prosecuting powers, independent of the police or AG’s chambers, introducing another player into the law enforcement game because he cannot effectively control the existing players.
This is not a Mahathiresque landscape, where literally everyone in government comes under the premier’s thumb. Abdullah’s weakness makes for a free for all, one which law enforcement actors appears to have taken advantage of on Wednesday.
Far-fetched? Let us not forget that Umno looked ridiculous the day Anwar was arrested. Pakatan and other social movements have successfully painted a picture of the police wherein they are mere blunt instruments constantly misused and manipulated by political power. This is no longer as true as it once was.
Law enforcement nonetheless capitalised very successfully on this perception; few now blame the police for what happened, they blame an Umno that was embarrassed after the debate from the night before; an Umno perceived to be desperate to defend itself against crossovers and Anwar coming in to Parliament at all costs.
As the arrest developed, the terms “own goal” and “public relations disaster” were bandied about liberally; people could barely believe that Umno would be this stupid.
Maybe it was just made to look stupid by forces incognito.
Indirect Attacks
Too much of a conspiracy theory? Perhaps.
One of the oddest aspects of Anwar’s arrest was its timing and manner. Both of these precipitated maximum elicitation of public anger.
Circumstances? Hours after the debate, minutes after an ACA report, an hour early without any plausible reason whatsoever, and with a squad of fifteen cars. Balaclava masks were used as well, but close inspection of the pictures suggests that the mask wearers were in fact overweight, sloppy, everyday cops who were given ski masks to wear along with their goofy vests and plain clothes at the last minute, rather than professional special-ops personnel (they also appeared fully prepared for their photo-ops, never straying far from Anwar).
Was this by design?
What if KeADILan had failed to maintain control over its angered membership, and riots had spilled over into the streets? Would we be looking at an Emergency situation?
Conveniently, law enforcement would find itself extremely empowered, and political leadership may have been forced to consolidate.
Let us also examine Raja Petra’s case. We notice that while we always suspect Najib of behind behind action against RPK, we should note that Najib himself has never been inclined to do anything whatsoever that may call attention to the Altantuya case (such as initiate criminal or legal proceedings, which would bring the matter to court).
More self-indulgently, let’s recall Nathaniel Tan’s arrest. Some may suspect that Johari Baharom was behind it, in an attempt to exact revenge for “lies” published about him on the internet. However, remember that he was (successfully) trying to stay out of the limelight and avoid further mention of his bribery accusations. Recall as well that at the time, Johari and Musa Hassan were engaged in a bitter war.
Same tactics by the same parties?
It is worth investigating on a procedural level exactly what led to the charge against RPK – was it a police report by Najib? Or a police report by some unknown police officer?
Note further that RPK’s trial – in which he can finally reveal to the world on record all his hidden proof and dirt on the Altantuya murder – is set for the exceptionally early date of August 15 (magistrates are appointed directly by the AG’s chambers), whereas his other sedition charge, months ago, is only set to be heard in early October. Presumably, if Anwar is ever charged with sodomy, his trial is likely to take years before it is heard.
Hit Anwar to embarrass Abdullah, hit RPK to embarrass Najib, and all in all, show them who’s boss.
Resisting
The civil servant class of power brokers almost don’t care who is in power; they just want a strong boss who can secure the current regime, and ensure that ‘business’ can be run as usual.
There’s simply too much at stake – and we are talking entire lives and careers forever besmirched and some serious prison time here – for business not to run as usual, or for any type of new order based on integrity, transparency and justice to take over.
Also in the same boat are certain former prime politicians still alive and kicking in the country, actively egging on a return to the old order.
These civil servants seem to have taken a leaf from Wong Chun Wai’s whiny “We’re sick and tired” book and decided to speed things up and facilitate the dominance of one Umno faction over the other.
Just as in 1988, twenty years ago, the movement for change was identified as an easy target to facilitate the achievement of unholy goals.
Unfortunately for these agitators, they are still oblivious to what was written on the wall last March 8th. The good news is that the the voices of those seeking a better Malaysia for all, have matured and wisened up to these manipulations as well as learnt the value of holding fast to Gandhian principles in their struggle.
The movement has also reached out and expanded beyond its original circles to all right-thinking Malaysians, who will no longer stand and watch all that is decent and honourable stolen from beneath their noses.
I think schemers and plotters will find a stronger, more united Malaysia willing to resist peacefully to the very end.
DATO’ SALEHUDDIN HASHIM and NATHANIEL TAN
Dato’ Salehuddin Hashim is the Secretary-General of Parti Keadilan Rakyat; Nathaniel Tan is facing constant distraction in his efforts to start a new career in finance.
*clap clap*
I have also been entertaining thoughts of maybe there is some shadowy figure behind all these political movements, maybe even a corporation. Yeah, I know, too many movies.
What if Mahathir really really really does believe that Anwar did it, and didn’t set out to frame him? This is of course me thinking Anwar is innocent from the outset of all the liwat cases.
Nat Tan (my fave pal…) GOoD analysis, may pick it up for use at cpiasia.net — pls take care! — Desi
good piece of work. pls continue. the nation need to know the inside story.
Great analysis Nathaniel, this calls for some serious thinking.
deep, deep down, at the back of my heart (not mind), I have this inkling also that not everything is as straight forward as it seems. Whilst I tend to believe that the government will not resort to such stupid acts (though not impossible either for the sake of staying in power) again and make them look obnoxious and even more stupid, someone is trying their very level best to portray the government as the sole perpetrator in this whole farce. No loss, anyway. Whatever twisted scheme and grandeur they may have, people just want a clean (though impossible in this country), fair and just (no race based here) government more than anything else. Decreased fuel price is secondary, believe me. The majority are just simple minded, grown up and wiser and responsible citizens. This is just wishful thinking, perhaps?
Nat: What have you been smoking?
“Abdullah is universally – and the word “universally” is not used lightly – perceived as weak.”
Personal opinion, quoted from a source (wikipedia is not relevant) or hearsay from other international sources?
I read in another blog that DSAI was arrested on order of Bukit Aman Serious Crime Division and not by Special Action Force (UTK) under Bakri Zinin and that the police executing the arrest order were wearing UTK uniforms.
May be you may want to look into the conflicting police order by Bakri Zinin on Juy 14 and the court order disallowing DSAI to be within 5km of Parliamment. Was it UTK that filed for the court order?
I suppose that we don’t hear alot of people who genuinely thinks well of Pak Lah (and “well” here takes into account everything, the decline of support, the rise of opposition – call it lesser of two evils, if u will)? it’s because only the anti-estalishment has alot to say. Yet BN got a comfortable 58 majority, it’s not 2/3, but neither is it razor thin, how about it? More independence, less interference, u call these weakness, or freedom?
Wow! What a story!
I think our politics is more interesting than Hollywood created fictions played on screen.
Nat,
Keep this up, and who knows, when all this has settled down, you may be able to sell your version of the truth to be published and made into a movie. Or tv series…
1) “Abdullah is universally – and the word “universally” is not used lightly – perceived as weak.”
I’m not sure how true that is. Pak Lah is a slightly different kind of political animal than the sort that Malaysia has gotten used to (especially by UMNO’s standards, where the “formula” for climbing the ranks seems to be to threaten to take a bath in Chinese blood at some point in your career), so assessing Pak Lah’s political strength may not be so easy.
For instance, following Anwar’s recent ridiculously heavy-handed arrest, Pak Lah actually managed to look like a good guy again, after his meeting with Azmin. I think people do pick up on these subtle things, and although many Malaysians do yearn for the “stronger leadership” of the Mahathir era, many others (especially in urban constituencies) would still want to stay as far away from that as possible.
2) The parallel you drew to your own detention is very interesting… I wonder if there’s some “formula” we can distill from this all! The new “Formula Perikatan”…?
What I fail to comprehend is that why badawi and najib continue to let themselves to be ‘attacked’ indirectly? Even often embarrassed themselves by giving ridiculous explanations to support ridiculous acts.
Well, the opinion of one person may not be shared by others.
I don’t think it’s fair to say that Pak Lah is universally perceived as weak.
Did you go around and distribute polls or is this your personal opinion?
Well, sorry but my family is not involved in politics nor any high profile cases like DSAI does. As a citizen isnt it our most basic responsibility to abide to laws and rules? If not for that who is responsible for the peace and order in the country? I am not on the police side when it comes to this, because I know even there are bad apples in the force too. But I’m talking in general here.
Is it really correct to go and dramatically arrest
Someone somebody else regards as a nuisance or ‘pest’
Even before the case is in place for a proper test
Causing the majority of the people this episode to detest
(C) Samuel Goh Kim Eng – 180708
http://MotivationInMotion.blogspot.com
Fri. 18th July 2008.
Good food for thought, Nat. That is something that needs to be addressed.
[...] An epic battle of three men – digging out the true motives of Anwar’s arrest [...]
You have added a new dimension to the play.
With such a volatile political environment – it would be really hard for you to be focus on a new career with your father when you know your heart wants to be involved with something else..
When you announced that you was going to be a special assistant to Anwar, I was worried for you.
And my worries was not unfounded – you ended up in jail but not due to Anwar, but due to the forces who are against Anwar.
It’s a terrible price to pay to stand up to your political beliefs demi kepentingan negara dan rakyats.
I salute people ike you, Tian Chua, LKS, LGE, Liz Wong, Sivarasa, the Hindraf group, Haris, MIS, Karpal S and many more unnamed defenders of the rakyat’s rights.
Many of us are cheering you guys on but are fearful of getting ourselves involved.
Thank you.
Bla bla bluek.
Nat,
U give ‘them’ too much credits for the concocted series of incidents.
I can NEVER believe that the present set of politikus/enforcement personnel CAN have such insights. The 4th floor boys included.
I’ll go for the Occam’s Razor – one should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything. The simplest is the truth.
It’s ‘their’ multiple STUPIDITIES coupled with Murphy’s Law that leads to the present predicaments.
If the definition of “weak” means a soft and calm personality, or not being able to bulid legacies or big buildings, or what? Who is a strong leader in international standards? Geroge W. Bush? Osama bin Laden?
“It’s ‘their’ multiple STUPIDITIES coupled with Murphy’s Law that leads to the present predicaments.”
Heheh, I think it was Napolean who said “never attribute to conspiracy that which can be attributed to incompetence”…. but I dunno if that pepatah is always true la :P
hasilox,
The success to telling a lie and make it believeable is to tell ONLY 1 lie and cover it with 99 truths. I guess they are trying to invert the truth by telling 99 lies to cover 1 true event!
yes, not so clever and it smells fishy all the way…
[...] Invisible Hands: Digging Out the True Motives of Anwar’s Arrest [...]
Anonymous said:-
See for yourself whether DPeeM of Malaysia is lying that he had never met Altantuya:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTi1l8BV1HM
See for yourself whether the Photos are real or fake
[...] either that or maybe it was the police themselves who leaked the report. Yeah2, too much conspiracy theory, I [...]
[...] Quek writes about the cops today as well, echoing some views me and Dato’ Saleh put together a while [...]
[...] the civil servants and the politicians is how much they have to worry about their reputations. Earlier, we argued that the civil servants are much less under public scrutiny and that the public was in [...]
[...] and Dato’ Salehuddin Hashim wrote an article a while back talking of a power vaccuum that was being exploited by parties such as the police to take matters into their own hands. We argued that this was the [...]