In politics, players like to keep their options open. In politics as well, there is often a ‘grand plan.’ (though this appears to apply less in Abdullah’s case :)
As usual, I’m not particularly keen to speculate on likelihoods, but I’ll venture to lay out what some of the landscape may be post-SAPP.
After what must have been plenty of due consideration, Yong/SAPP settled on two key tactics – attack Abdullah personally, and not to announce a departure from BN.
These tactics lend themselves to multiple interpretations, most of which have been picked up by various writers and commentators, so I must note that the following thoughts may not be particularly original.
Let’s start with what I feel would be the least flattering interpretation. Perhaps this is mere posturing; a threat to Abdullah with the expectation of ‘personal greed’ (more on this later) being fulfilled as a result.
Perhaps this is not anti-BN at all, but merely some anti-Abdullah action egged on by the likes of Najib – who stands to gain immeasurably immense capital from this development. No confidence in Abdullah, replace him (with Najib probably), make new deals and new payoffs, end of crisis.
Those are some of the ‘negative’ interpretations.
Perhaps by not announcing a departure, Yong/SAPP are attempting to engineer getting themselves unceremoniously kicked out. Politically, it probably looks much better to appear as a maligned victim/martyr punished for standing up than as a turncoat of any sort; the added political capital can be quite useful in a longer war of attrition against BN.
The ‘beauty’ of SAPP’s move is that it actually allows – for now anyway – all of the above.
I’m personally not particularly inclined to think negatively of their move; it must be noted that Sabah’s grievances are quite serious – especially where illegal immigrants, development and oil royalties are concerned. I’m not sure how all that translates into ‘personal greed.’
Also, one does not embark on such an endeavour without being fully prepared for what could be quite serious consequences. As far as I read it, they’ve most likely already burnt their bridges behind them.
After all, for Abdullah to pander to them now would appear unforgivably weak, and his initial accusation against Yong (which I find a typical, if relatively smart, political move) indicates that he may well cut his losses and not take any shit.
The question of course, is who will follow SAPP? I’m reminded of Mahathir’s stillborn ‘let’s quit Umno in droves’ idea. The dearth of momentum that followed is a weakness on his part that I’m surprised not more have exploited (maybe they just want to hush it up asap).
So, as is obvious to everyone, the next 48 hrs are key. After Gerakan’s Lee/Penang and Tan/Selangor, there is clearly some momentum; if actors can be jolted out of their wait and see attitude, fireworks will be in store. Even if Abdullah rides this one out though, he’s far from secure.
The big leaders of other component parties have all pledged support. What we should remember though, is that those leaders are the ones who stand to lose the most should Abdullah or Umno fall. The same cannot necessarily be said for those within said parties that are closer to the grassroots. Even within SAPP, there seems to have been some disagreement about their move.
On the Pakatan side, DSAI is delighted, PAS appears warm but a tad wary, and DAP rather more lukewarm. I sincerely mean this as an objective observation rather than criticism in any way, but history suggests to me that DAP has always been considerably more guarded and conservative about change.
Nazri, oddly enough, takes a more concilliatory tone, in contrast to Ali Rustam, who is out for blood.
I guess we’ll know where the chips really fall after the BN meeting this afternoon.
“DAP has always been considerably more guarded and conservative about change”
Heheheh….you can say that again.
I find it ironic for a party whose election slogan was “Just Change It’, is in its way, an extremely conservative party, very set in its ways and thinking.
““DAP has always been considerably more guarded and conservative about change”
Heheheh….you can say that again.”
ROFLCOPTERS IN THE SKY!!! depends what you mean by change i suppose…. there’s many different kinds of change… there’s real change, there’s change you can xerox (hahahaha… hillary… *sigh*), there’s superficial change, there’s change for the better, there’s change for the worse, there’s wardrobe change (with the occasional malfunction), and then there’s spare change for the panhandlers and Ronald McDonalds Homes.
I won’t get into specifics, because that WILL spark a (un?)holy war between PKR and DAP supporters and that will spoil the BN-bashing mood that we are all in :-) ’nuff said…
nat: hahaha, no offence meant bro, no offence meant :) you’re right about change, and good lord, i must remember ‘roflcopters in the sky for next time!’ :)
haha, don’t worry, wasn’t offended, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… I believe in 2-party politics… I believe those 2 parties should be PKR and DAP ;-)
Methinks me knows what’s on in “Dick’s” head
DICK WHITTINGTON?
AAB the loud mouth. Talking about greed? Who is greedy? Family amassing billions and the rakyat having to live from hands to mouth. Illegal immigrant influx in Sabah is for real. And why should Sabah not ask for increment of oil royalty. Afterall they are the oil producing state. Yet Sabah, Sarawak and Trengganu are the most undeveloped states in the country. Something is wrong somewhere. Sabahans & Sarawakians make your move and get rid of the greedies.
Sarawakians MPs seems to be behind Badawi and it this is the case, SAPP and PKR will be left waiting at the alter. Somehow, Datuk Yong didn’t have the full blessing of SAPP’s supreme council before making this move. His deputy was not even invited to this announcement, so let’s see what else is coming out of SAPP’s supreme council tomorrow.
Nat, the reason why DAP seemed guarded and conservative to you may be because they are calculating their move to allow BN to continue pressing down the self destruct button. You see, Anwar is over zealous, arrogant and getting carried away with his current popularity. He might burn out when nothing really come his way come sept. 16th.
Good balanced article.
Good chess players. The moves and counter moves well thought out. Reactons and responses separates the men from the boys.
Now let’s see what happens by Monday. A cliff hanger episode.
Could even be good materiel for a min-TV series!
THAT DOLLAH IS SO DECEITFUL! KEEP LYING THAT SAPP IS PROMOTING IT’S SO-CALLED GREEDY SELF-INTEREST; EXCUSE ME, WHAT ABOUT UMNO/BN?! LOOK AT YOUR ‘EVIL’ SELVES IN THE MIRROR IDIOT! I applaud SAPP brave move but they need to move away from narrow communal and ultra-nationalist politics, and to join up collectively under PR, so that the real greedy scums of BN/UMno can really be toppled! For rakyat’s sake! Time for SAPP and all other non-Umno component parties to dump Umno! What I cannot understand is despite all the racist politics towards non-Malays and non-Muslims (now forcing DAP MPs to wear the songkok, for goodness sake; what’s next – the veil?!), why are they still kissing Umno’s dirty feet?! Besides, with all the oil wealth that corrupted Umno leaders have stolen from Sabah & Sarawak, with many rural East M’sians are still as poor as anything! And I was shocked when I was in Sarawak & Sabah; to find menacing illegal immigrants from Mindanao and Indonesia, behaving like kings, with no respect to the local custom and population! I just sent a formal letter of complaint to Sabah immigration complaining about illegal immigrants building ugly huts all over the beautiful beach of Kg. Sukang Suka Laut, Indarasan, Kudat, which was praised by Lonely Planet as one of the most beautiful place in Sabah with pristine white sandy beach and lots of corals, small islands and mangrove swamp with amazing wildlife. It should be a national heritage but now it’s full of illegal immigrants from across Mindanao, just hopping on the so-called fishing boats across Borneo sea, joining their “IC-holders” relatives who have settled in the village; whilst destroying such wonderful natural environment. They even went to the toilet, all over the beach and in the forest! Who knows what else they’re smuggling in their “fishing” boats; might be Islamist extremists form Abu Sayyaf in Mindanao there, guns, prostitutes or drugs! One last thing; what happen to all the oil profit from the newly-found oil& gas well in Kikeh, Sabah, which is supposed to be the biggest well in SEA? I complaint to YB Anwar, why the 90% tender was given to Murphy Oil, USA and not to Petronas?!
Noor Aza Othman,
Menunggu Umno/BN “jatuh jauh ditelan jurang Gunung Kinabalu, yang banyak hikayatnya!”
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But what do we do if Sapp end up being the only ones challenging?
I am not privy to what you are the other end Nat, but as much as I am happy Sapp have done what they have, I do have not so kind memories of how PBS for left standing alone after abandoning BN at the eleventh hour. History repeating itself in this case, or are we going to see real changes.
What say you matey?