Evolution, Extinction & a Two Party System

During campaign ceramahs, I talked about how Malaysians don’t get a chance to write the long letters they might want to on their ballots. We just get one X.

It’s unwise to try and discern too deeply why each Malaysian X’ed what they did, but perhaps we can look into what March 8 and the two weeks that followed mean for the future.

Very briefly, I would say the results suggest that at the very least, the rakyat will not tolerate a combination of excessive corruption and weak leadership; they will also not be cowered by race-based rhetoric and fear mongering.

Where the latter is concerned, it is worth noting the threats that fell on deaf ears during this GE: vote Umno or lose your Malay rights, vote MCA or the Chinese voice will disappear from Cabinet, vote MIC or ELSE..

Turns out the rakyat is much braver, and much wiser than BN thought.

On the governance front, it seems quite clear that there is a limit to how much corruption and inept governance the rakyat will tolerate, especially in an era where alternative sources of information are readily available.

All this combined with rising cost of living & crime, plus compelling alternative explanations as to why such things were spiraling out of control likely played a big part in the electoral outcome.

It’s pretty obvious what the ‘good guys’ have to do – don’t screw up the 5 states, cooperate properly, keep your promises, serve the people faithfully, and so on.

But what now for BN?

Where race is concerned, staying the present course is likely to only bring the same results or worse. Genuine change can happen in one of at least two directions.

Firstly, they can go harder to the right and become more ultra-Malay/Chinese/Indian. Of course this is not entirely practical for the whole of BN. Umno & MCA cannot simultaneously go ultra-Malay and ultra-Chinese without breaking BN apart.

There have already been a few steps in this direction, in attempting to protest the composition of various new governments on the basis of protecting Malay rights. So far, I’m not seeing any major uproar or mass uprising, making the preliminary suggestion that this tack is not likely to get Umno far (perhaps somewhat due as well to the perception that ultra-Malayness has been effectively used as an insincere cover for ultra-corruption, combined with the potentially unpopular anti-palace stance Umno seems to be taking).

In this political landscape, what are the choices political players face?

For the non-Malay parties, the dilemma is not really a dilemma. I think there is no earthly chance that the calculations somehow show that supporting (a sinking) Umno will lead to a better future for non-Malays.

BN component parties find themselves in the deserted spot that they are in quite simply because they backed what they wrongly thought to be the only winning horse in town.

As for the Malays? I think with a credible, clean leadership as provided for by KeADILan and PAS, many fears that Umno continuously plays on will be allayed.

Results across urban west Malaysia at least strongly suggest that Malays want no part of the NEP if it’s a policy benefitting Umno and leaves the rest of them out in the cold. Unless the alternative parties screw up the economy so badly or really start ‘pawning off’ Malay rights, there’s not going to be much reason to go back to Umno either.

Without incumbency – already so precariously hanging in the balance – an even more ultra Umno has very little to offer.

The other direction to go is to merge all BN component parties.

An interesting (though not particularly likely) suggestion, we then would have to see what separates BN from its opposites.

I think in those circumstances, there will quite literally no ideological difference between the two sides. Even PAS now talks about a Welfare State instead of an Islamic one, part of a massive image overhaul, which probably accounts for their victories in urban, mixed seats.

This is a rare situation that requires some consideration. It would be a two party system without a whole lot of ways to differentiate between the two sides.

How then will the battle lines be drawn? I believe it will all come down to track record of governance.

The rakyat will compare what they’ve experienced under 50 years of BN rule with the next few months and years of the alternative.

The competition will then be to see who can rule better, and this competition can only be good for the rakyat.

How is BN doing so far?

Clearly, there are a few at least token steps towards reform. People like Zaid Ibrahim and Shahrir Samad being the most touted examples.

Mat Taib probably cancels all that out all by himself. Not only a minister but Selangor chief as well, there are few clearer indications that Abdullah is light years away from being 100% committed to reform and sacrificing old corruption for new integrity.

This is almost a pity.

Some may think I am oversimplifying, but in politics one must have the goods. You can have all the papers, the television stations and so on, or you can have just the internet, leaflets and ceramahs – at the end of the day, it’s your message and your credentials.

With the endless new appointments, the government had a chance to show that it understood this, and abandon both race-based politics and corruption, but clearly it is only willing to make a few token steps with one hand, and let the other hand continue business as usual.

This, alongside the leadership crisis brewing, could spell the extinction of BN.

And what happens if they do disappear?

A one-party system has never been good for Malaysia, and I doubt it ever will, regardless of which party that is.

If no significant political force steps up to play a proper check and balance role, it may well fall to civil society to increase their capacity to be watchdogs and guardians against abuses of power.

I’m not sure how interesting any of this is, but I wanted to get my thoughts down in writing about the larger canvass before going back into the nitty gritty of details and squabbles.

I think we covered some really important ground on March 8th, and *perhaps* the worst is over. There’s no doubt however, that the new state governments are going to have to go above and beyond in their effort to become responsible, caring, transparent and honest servants of the people.